That’s because the multi-billion dollar trade deficit represents product demand opportunities for exports to India since the country is a net spender on a specific set of goods highlighted below.
Drilling down from its overall negative balance, India performed worst in its international trade with fellow Asian countries incurring a -$89.3 billion shortfall. Exporters from the Middle East also profited, accounting for a -$25.2 billion trade deficit at India’s expense. African exporters also satisfied India’s product demand as born witness by a -$8.1 billion negative trade balance for India during 2015.
Country-specific trade deficits indicate India’s competitive disadvantages and areas which foreign businesses can and do exploit. India accumulated the world’s third-biggest trade deficit during 2015, outdone only by the United States and the United Kingdom.
Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of good news: India’s trade deficit in 2015 shrank by 21.5% since 2011 when its negative balance totaled -$160.9 billion.
Product Demand Opportunities for Exports to India
Top 10
The following list shows the top 10 general product categories under which India racked up the severest trade deficits during 2015.
- Mineral fuels including oil: -US$73.3 billion (35.4% of all product-level deficits)
- Electrical machinery, equipment: -$28 billion (13.5%)
- Gems, precious metals: -$21.1 billion (10.2%)
- Machinery including computers: -$18.8 billion (9.1%)
- Animal/vegetable fats, oils: -$9.6 billion (4.6%)
- Fertilizers: -$7.4 billion (3.6%)
- Plastics, plastic articles: -$6.3 billion (3.1%)
- Iron, steel: -$5.4 billion (2.6%)
- Ores, slag, ash: -$5.2 billion (2.5%)
- Optical, technical, medical apparatus: -$4.9 billion (2.4%)
The above top 10 product categories generate a subtotal deficit of -$180 billion, an amount 1.4 times higher than India’s overall deficit of -$126.4 billion. For that subtotal, 49 of India’s 97 general product categories incurred deficits in 2015 while the remaining 49 categories delivered surplus amounts.
Growth
India deepened its trade deficit amounts at the greatest-pace during 2011 to 2015 under the product categories below.
- Beverages, spirits, vinegar: Up 6,777% since 2011 (-US$216.8 million)
- Soaps, washing preparations, lubricants, waxes: Up 558.9% (-$157.2 million)
- Ores, slag, ash: Up 242.6% (-$5.2 billion)
- Vegetables: Up 194.3% (-$2.5 billion)
- Knit or crochet fabric: Up 175.3% (-$237.3 million)
- Plastics, plastic articles: Up 149.7% (-$6.3 billion)
- Railways, streetcars: Up 145.8% (-$385.6 million)
- Fruits, nuts: Up 142.6% (-$1.6 billion)
- Modified starches, glues, enzymes: Up 124.8% (-$106 million)
- Cork, articles of cork: Up 100.4% (-$3.4 million)
Detail
From the perspective of the more detailed 4-digit harmonized tariff system (HTS) level, below are 15 products that pushed India into the most costly deficits versus its international trade partners.
- Gold (unwrought): -US$72.3 billion
- Phone system devices: -$29.7 billion
- Coal, solid fuels made from coal: -$15 billion
- Petroleum gases: -$14 billion
- Palm oil: -$11.6 billion
- Computers, optical readers: -$5.9 billion
- Silver (unwrought): -$5 billion
- Copper ores, concentrates: -$4.3 billion
- Dried shelled vegetables: -$4.1 billion
- Fertilizer mixes: -$3.43 billion
- Iron or steel scrap: -$3.42 billion
- Nitrogenous fertilizers: -$3 billion
- Soya-bean oil: -$2.7 billion
- Ethylene polymers: -$2.7 billion
- Solar power diodes/semi-conductors: -$2.5 billion
- Acyclic alcohols: -$2.4 billion
- Phosphoric/polyphosphoric acids: -$1.6 billion
- Vinyl chloride polymers: -$1.57 billion
- Flat-rolled other alloy steel products: -$1.55 billion
- Rough wood: -$1.5 billion
Among these, soya-bean oil had the fastest-growing Indian deficit accelerating by 133% since 2011. In second place was dried shelled vegetables up 126.2% while the negative net export balance for ethylene polymers increased by 111.2%.
Major Product Demand by India’s Supplying Countries
Top 10
The following list presents trade partners with which India racked up the highest trade deficits in 2015.
- China: -US$44.8 billion (18.1% of Indian country-specific deficits)
- Switzerland: -$20 billion (8.1%)
- Saudi Arabia: -$19.6 billion (7.9%)
- Qatar: -$15.3 billion (6.2%)
- Iraq: -$15.3 billion (6.2%)
- Kuwait: -$13.8 billion (5.6%)
- Venezuela: -$13 billion (5.2%)
- Nigeria: -$12.8 billion (5.2%)
- Indonesia: -$10.7 billion (4.3%)
- South Korea: -$8.6 billion (3.5%)
The above 10 trade partners represent an Indian trade deficit subtotal of -$272.9 billion. That amount that is offset by deficits with 72 other geographic entities with which India posted negative trade balances plus surpluses that India achieved with with 136 more partners, arriving at the overall -$126.4 billion trade deficit for India during 2015.
Growth
India grew its trade deficit amounts with the geographic entities below at the fastest-pace during 2011 to 2015, providing evidence of accelerating demand for exports from these international suppliers.
- St. Pierre and Miquelon: Up 525% since 2011 (-US$25,000)
- Solomon Islands: Up 363.7% (-$64.1 million)
- Canada: Up 319.2% (-$1.76 billion)
- Gabon: Up 259.2% (-$78.5 million)
- Cameroon: Up 243.6% (-$531.8 million)
- Luxembourg: Up 232.7% (-$169.1 million)
- Argentina: Up 169.9% (-$1.7 billion)
- Christmas Islands: Up 166.7% (-$8,000)
- Laos: Up 63.1% (-$91.7 million)
- Indonesia: Up 45.9% (-$11 billion)
From the above list, India mostly showed major product supply disadvantages versus this group of traders. India generated billion-dollar negative trade balances with Indonesia, Argentina and Canada.
China
Below are the products that resulted in the greatest Indian deficits in international trade with China.
- Phone system devices: -US$10.4 billion (20.1% of India’s deficit vs. China)
- Computers, optical readers: -$3.2 billion (6.1%)
- Fertilizer mixes: -$1.9 billion (3.6%)
- Solar power diodes/semi-conductors: -$1.8 billion (3.5%)
- Nitrogenous fertilizers: -$1.65 billion (3.2%)
- TV receivers/monitors/projectors: -$941.6 million (1.8%)
- Antibiotics: -$802.3 million (1.5%)
- TV/radio/radar device parts: -$730.4 million (1.4%)
- Heterocyclics, nucleic acids: -$682.5 million (1.3%)
- Flat-rolled other alloy steel products: -$646.7 million (1.2%)
Among these, flat-rolled other alloy steel products had the fastest-growing Indian deficit with China improving by 139% from 2011 to 2015. In second place were fertilizer mixes up 93.4% followed by solar power diodes and semi-conductors increasing by 89.4%.
Switzerland
Below are the products that resulted in the greatest Indian deficits in international trade with Switzerland.
- Gold (unwrought): -US$18.7 billion (92.6% of India’s deficit vs. Switzerland)
- Silver (unwrought): -$546.3 million (2.7%)
- Print/write/draw inks: -$114.9 million (0.6%)
- Wrist/pocket watches (precious metal case): -$96.6 million (0.5%)
- Medication mixes in dosage: -$75.9 million (0.4%)
- Uncoated paper for writing/printing: -$69.6 million (0.3%)
- Auxiliary machines: -$51 million (0.3%)
- Physical/chemical analysis tools: -$50.1 million (0.2%)
- Wrist/pocket watches (no precious metal case): -$47.6 million (0.2%)
- Blood fractions (including antisera): -$37.6 million (0.2%)
Among these, unwrought silver represents the fastest-growing Indian deficit with Switzerland swelling by 187.9% from 2011 to 2015. In second place were inks for printing, writing or drawing up 139.2% followed at a distance by wrist and pocket watches increasing by 24.5%.
Saudi
Below are the products that resulted in the greatest Indian deficits in international trade with Saudi Arabia.
- Crude oil: -US$14.8 billion (103.1% of India’s deficit vs. Saudi Arabia)
- Petroleum gases: -$1.2 billion (8.1%)
- Fertilizer mixes: -$736.3 million (5.1%)
- Ethylene polymers: -$647.7 million (4.5%)
- Aircraft, spacecraft: -$546.8 million (3.8%)
- Diamonds (unmounted/unset): -$527.4 million (3.7%)
- Acyclic alcohols: -$462.8 million (3.2%)
- Cyclic hydrocarbons: -$254.9 million (1.8%)
- Propylene/olefin polymers: -$232.6 million (1.6%)
- Ammonia: -$195.6 million (1.4%)
Among these, unprocessed diamonds had the fastest-growing Indian deficit with Saudi Arabia swelling by 1,075% from 2011 to 2015. In second place were cyclic hydrocarbons up 297.7% followed by aircraft and spacecraft increasing by 227.5%.
See also India’s Top 10 Imports, India’s Top Import Partners, India’s Top 10 Exports and Highest Value Indian Export Products
Research Sources:
The World Factbook, Country Profiles, Central Intelligence Agency. Accessed on August 31, 2016
Trade Map, International Trade Centre. Accessed on August 31, 2016
Investopedia, Net Exports Definition. Accessed on August 31, 2016